Navigating the Future of Quantum Computing

Strategic pathways for quantum computing over the next five years

Sep 03, 2025

Picture this: You walk into your pharmaceutical research lab on an ordinary day, only to be met with the news—quantum computing has broken through. Within a few weeks, the previously impossible is happening all around you. Rivals are slashing new drug design timelines, cost projections, and logistics are being optimized in the blink of an eye, and competitors are unveiling life-saving medical discoveries at a dizzying pace. The industry’s competitive dynamics have shifted overnight. Those prepared are racing ahead, capturing markets and rewriting what’s possible, while others scramble to catch up—realizing too late that the future has arrived, and it waits for no one.

This could be a familiar story—the future often arrives sooner than expected, and those who waited on the sidelines may find themselves playing catch-up. We’ve seen variations of this before with cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and other disruptive technologies. The lesson is clear: Being unprepared can be costly, as exponential technologies do nothing for a long time and then seemingly appear out of nowhere.

Rather than trying to predict exactly when quantum computing will hit the mainstream, C-suite leaders are better served by exploring and preparing for a range of plausible futures.

Deloitte’s Center for Integrated Research recently published “Quantum computing over the next five years: Scenario planning for strategic resilience,” which uses scenario analysis to help executives navigate the dynamic opportunities offered by quantum computing. The research defines and combines two critical uncertainties related to the evolution of quantum computing that are most likely to have the greatest impact and highest level of uncertainty for organizations. When combined, these two “axes of uncertainty” reveal four plausible scenarios for analysis leading up to 2030. The first (Y-axis) examines the quantum talent and operating environment—how easily organizations can access quantum computing resources. The second (X-axis) explores whether scalable quantum computing arrives sooner or later than expected.

By exploring these four scenarios, organizations can better prepare for different potential future outcomes. Depending on how an organization may be impacted by the opportunities and risks inherent in this future context, different leadership, operational, and workforce choices may be needed today. Let’s explore the four scenarios for 2030 and consider decisions that can be made in the near term to ready the organization.

Surprise

In this scenario, quantum computing is business-ready much sooner than anyone anticipated, but most companies lack the necessary skills or technical infrastructure to capitalize on it. Organizations that invested early are now reaping significant rewards—they’ve shaped the technology to fit their needs and secured top talent. Meanwhile, latecomers are scrambling to catch up and struggling to get access to the right people and resources. To prepare today for such a scenario, consider appointing a C-suite leader to be a quantum champion to assess disruption and technical risks. The organization can also begin launching business-led quantum computing education programs across leadership levels.

Quandary

In this scenario, quantum computing is taking its time to arrive, and there’s still a shortage of skilled people and supportive environments. Early adopters have built up valuable experience and strong partnerships, enabling them to co-create solutions with trusted partners. Those who waited on the sidelines find it difficult to break in when quantum computing does finally arrive post-2030, facing longer timelines and tougher competition. Given this potential future, C-suite teams may choose to start with small-scale proof of concepts (POCs) to understand business applications and risks. These POCs could serve as an early preparation to extract value and build understanding when quantum computing matures.

Explosion

In this scenario, quantum computing and the quantum information science (QIS) talent market have both matured quickly, and the technology is ready for prime time sooner than currently anticipated. Early investors are in a great spot—they can tap into a skilled workforce and quickly turn their pilot projects into real-world solutions. Their early experiments have given them a head start. However, companies that hesitated to act on quantum computing are now missing out on major advances in high-performance computing, information optimization, and natural world simulation, and are struggling to find the right talent. To be in a better competitive position should this scenario materialize, the C-suite may choose to respond by forming an executive committee to prioritize quantum use cases, establishing a center of excellence, and planning strategies for rapid hiring and upskilling of dedicated quantum talent to accelerate real-world deployments.

Leap

In this scenario, the ecosystem for quantum talent and operations has grown strong, but the technology itself takes longer to advance than expected. Early movers have used this time to build innovation teams and gather valuable insights, keeping them ahead of the curve. Those who waited are now behind and are lacking the workforce and expertise to navigate an increasingly complex quantum landscape. To stay competitive in this scenario, C-suite leaders should consider fostering close collaboration between technology and business teams, incrementally building in-house quantum expertise, and evolving IT models to support both classical and quantum solutions.

Embracing the futurist mindset: Strategic actions for quantum readiness

As leaders navigate the uncertain yet exciting future of quantum computing, it’s crucial to remember that we are all futurists at heart. Scenario analysis isn’t about predicting the future but about imagining multiple possibilities and reframing strategic decision-making so leaders can make the best possible decisions with the information they have today.

The future of quantum computing is a journey through uncharted territory. Like any expedition, success depends not just on your tools, but on your ability to read the terrain and adapt your course accordingly. Organizations that are early in planning will benefit from developing a roadmap that identifies with whom, when, where, and how to start in order to navigate this journey. By embracing a futurist mindset, you can make strategic decisions that could position your organization to thrive under multiple future scenarios. Ultimately, there is value in preparing regardless, given the lessons that can be learned.

As leaders, you have two choices: Begin “behind the scenes” preparation for a quantum computing future or continue to wait and try to catch up to the competition later. Which path will you choose?